MMEGI ONLINE
25 May, 2012
Our diplomats shake hands and smile for the cameras, our governments say all the right things, and neither country acknowledges what they think is really at stake: Africa’s future and the chance to dominate it.
Deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe met with his Nigerian counterpart in Cape Town this week as part of the Nigeria- South Africa Bi-National Commission to thrash out all the petty administrative issues between the two countries. They addressed the more mundane aspects of international relations: technical cooperation, existing bilateral agreement implementation and customs administration. Don’t be fooled by the bureaucratic jargon: these things matter.
It was in March that the innocuous-sounding “customs administration” caused the year’s most serious diplomatic incident, when over-zealous South African customs officials deported a planeload of Nigerians for having the wrong yellow fever vaccination documentation. Nigeria was incensed and starting refusing visas to South Africans. The situation was only resolved after an abject apology from South Africa.
Motlanthe acknowledged that the relationship between the two countries had been going through a difficult time recently, telling Nigerian vice-president Namadi Sambo, “Both of us need a heart-to-heart talk inspired by the spirit of brotherhood and sisterhood as Africans with a shared destiny, so that we surface (sic) home truths as a prerequisite to clear up any irritants that may be currently serving as a wedge between us,” said Motlanthe, whose speechwriter was clearly enjoying the chance to employ some grandiloquent rhetoric.
The most pressing dispute between the two countries is also the most high- profile: the race to lead the African Union Commission. Nigeria is the biggest backer of Gabonese incumbent Jean Ping, and has been mobilising West African support for his second term. South Africa has its own candidate, home affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Nigeria is nervous that South Africa wants the position to consolidate its power and influence over the continent. For its part, South Africa is frustrated at Nigeria’s apparent unwillingness to reform the AU Commission. Neither side is willing to compromise, and another stalemate is predicted when countries vote at the next AU summit in July.
This issue was apparently not discussed by the two vice-presidents, although a journalist asked Sambo about it after the meeting. After a long digression, he gave the cryptic message that “not only a position in the African Union, but even at the United Nations, Nigeria will support South Africa to take any position.” SABC reported this to mean Nigeria was backing Dlamini-Zuma, but it seems more likely the quote was taken out of context.
Officials from Dirco knew nothing about it when asked. Even more unlikely is that Nigeria would give up the chance of a permanent seat on the United for Nations Security Council, which South Africa also wants. This permanent seat is theoretical at present, as United Nations reform is still a long way off. But when it comes, there will have to be at least one spot on the Security Council for Africa, and it will go to the African country with the most money, influence and power – or the one with the most influential friends.
South Africa, as Africa’s biggest and most developed economy, is an obvious choice; but so too is Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country. However, the biggest and most bitter strain on South Africa-Nigeria relations is economic. South Africa prides itself on being Africa’s biggest economy and as the go-to country for companies wanting to invest in Africa. Nigeria, on the other hand, is the great disappointment, a symbol of what might have been.Blessed with massive oil reserves and a hard- working, entrepreneurial population, but blighted by poor governance and rampant corruption, economic development has eluded Nigeria.
But this is changing. Burnt by its exposure to Europe, South African growth is slowing drastically, predicted to be under three percent this year. Nigeria, by contrast, is looking at seven percent or more. And while South Africa’s gross domestic product is nearly twice Nigeria’s, this is no cause for comfort. In fact, it’s probably an accounting oddity. GDP statistics are always calculated from a base year and countries should usually update this base year regularly. South Africa last re-based its GDP in 2009; for Nigeria, there has been no re-basing since 1990.
When it does happen the effects will be dramatic. Ghana is a good recent example: when it re-based in 2010, the size of the economy suddenly jumped by 60 percent. Nigeria’s economy is predicted to increase by 40 percent, which will be a much more accurate representation of its real size. It will still be smaller than South Africa’s, but taking the respective growth rates into account, the Nigerian economy should outstrip South Africa’s by 2015 or 2016. This could leave South Africa in a difficult position.
Just imagine if Pretoria lost the AU race in humiliating fashion, was outmanoeuvred in the UN Security Council and found itself with a smaller and slower economy than Nigeria’s. Suddenly, Nigeria becomes a much more attractive proposition diplomatically, politically and economically. And South Africa becomes a country in decline.
The calculus for Nigeria is similar. It likes to see itself as an African superpower, but South Africa’s economic dominance and post-apartheid political muscle make Nigeria’s claim significantly weaker. Nigeria is also very sensitive about protecting its own economy from inroads by South African firms. MTN, Shoprite and DStv are making millions in Nigeria and most of that profit is flowing south. Hence the importance of protectionist measures such as strict visa regulations and restrictions on flights between the two countries (kept artificially low by a bilateral agreement between the two countries). These measures are just fine with South Africa, paranoid about illegal immigration.
Both countries are making mistakes. While their calculations make sense, it’s only because they’re based on the wrong premise: that it’s a winner-takes-all, zero-sum game and that there can be only one African “superpower”. But it’s a big continent, and there’s plenty to go round.Cooperation will be mutually beneficial for both country’s populations. There was a promising hint of this kind of cooperation at this week’s meeting, with a deal for South Africa to start importing more Nigerian oil and liquid fuel. South Africa needs a new supplier as it is likely to observe American sanctions on Iran, and Nigeria is more than happy for a new customer – especially one that brings guarantees. “We would guarantee to our Nigerian brothers demand for their liquid fuels, because we don’t want to source our fuel in areas that are likely to be unstable,” Motlanthe said, wilfully ignoring the fact that Nigeria remains one of the most unstable countries on the continent.
This trust is a good start. If it could be extended to other areas – the AU race, for example, or a waiver of visa requirements- the two countries would be an unstoppable combination and a powerful driver of African development .
All of this analysis only stems from the mishap that has been decades of administrative buffoonery in Nigeria. Otherwise, we should have put South Africa in her rightful place an eon ago. Insofar as the tail does not wag the dog, the cookies shall yet crumble in favour of Nigeria.
Even without the economy being rebased, we have swept past Egypt to become the second biggest economy on the continent, never mind a smaller South Africa. It is only a matter of time before that happens,in much the same way as China have in one decade bounced Britain, France, Germany and Japan from their positions of makeshift bragging rights.
At the last BRICS meeting, some of the commentators clearly stated that South Africa were mismatched comprehensively. The crux of that matter was that she had nothing in common, DEMOGRAPHICALLY or ECONOMICALLY, with the BRIC nations. The said commentators noted that Nigeria would have been a more authentic African representative on account of her demographic size and the fact that she is after all, Africa’s no.2 economy.
Enjoy the time at the top, dear SA. We are bouncing you guys from that pretentious perch in few years time.
FG, mek una nor yab. EQUIP the military for the UNSC slot – hit it or die trying, develop infrastructure and be confident, the same degree of confidence with which Nigeria led the onslaught against the racist order.
Green-White-Green..for LIFE.
For there to be cooperation between Nigeria and South Africa , a couple of pragmatic realities need to take place as in realpolitik i.e. the reality on the ground
Nigeria- The need to develop infrastructure wise and miltarily wise in order to get that mythical permeanent seat @ the U.N. there is a need to invest in your own backyard.
South Africa- The reality is beginning to set in that Europe is not the answer nor will it be your destination in less than 10 years time for your expensive goods , reality is you will make more money in Nigeria than in Europe huh? i know it is painful but no one in ENGLAND OR GERMANY heard of MTN OR SHOPRITE.
MUTUAL REALITY
NIGERIA needs ships, planes and mraps from s/ africa
S/AFRICA needs petroleum , liquified gas to run her huge factories for it to continue to grow. It also painfully needs Nigeria’s friendship in order to sit on powerful african organizations because other nations are wary of her.
Africa is more than big enough for two super powers to exist.
Excellent article. Great insights as always from @Jimmy Hollyee and @Beegeagle.
This bi-national forum is a great idea.
One thing we have to give former president OBJ credits for the current growth we are experiencing in the economy. The Bank reforms, liberalization of the telecoms (and other sectors), Monetization policies, the privatization of some government parastatals etc have all conspired to result in the current economic growth we are experiencing. One area the government now needs to fix is Power. If Nigeria can generate enough power to meets the demands of its people and private sector and that power is stable. Then the sky would be the limit of this nation, The government wont even have to get involved in business. It would just be relegated to the role of referee.
Already we are seeing the entrepreneurial spirit of Nigeria in businesses like Glo, Dangote, The Silver Bird groups and even HiTV.. This companies are stating to gain confidence and reaching out to neighboring west African countries in some cases even taking over from the south africans as is the case of silver bird in Kenya and Ghana.
The writer of this article couldn’t have gotten a better name for his article than this “frenemies”. It truly represents the yoyo relationship we have with our south african rivals for domination over the continent.there is no doubt that we face tremendous problems in our country, but the most amazing thing is despite the weak institutions, and lack of infastructure( which truly is changing, visit akwa-ibom or rivers or benin), infact Rivers state generates more electricity than it requires but the problem is it all has to be fed to the national grid. Distribution remains the exclusive right of the federal government), we still have been able to surpass the egyptain economy, even without rebasing the economy( our). With a yearly growth rate of 7% gdp yearly, we have one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Looking at the local content law, nigerian companies have been awarded, undertaken and deliverd multi-billion dollar( usd) projects. Whether it’s building of gas and oil piplines, to oil rig platforms or company vessels, we have shown a high level of competency. We have seen developments in our auto-industry, with indigenous auto firm, like innoson, making gaint strides ( you just have to give it to that man, very nice auto-mobiles he has). In foreign policy on the continent, were the two countries, nigeria and south africa has been involved( libya and ivory coast), nigeria has taken the day. I’m sure we would still trump them over A.U chairmanship. To be honest, we lag behind them, very far interms of local military industry. While they have locally made military attack helics, and mine prove apc( used in iraq, afghanistan by the U.S and her nato allies) our DICON in kaduna makes RPG-7′s, smaller assault rifles( ak47, fn fal etc) still at an infancy stage, after over 25 years of creation. Truly our economy would be the biggest in africa by the year 2018-2020, but can same be said of our military? The must important thing is not to look at south africa as neigbours or brothers but as rivals with the african continent been the winning price.
Our economy will be bigger but in what terms, we’re talking of money floating at the top that is not invested internally. The capital is flowing out rather than staying in.
We can beat SA at their own game easily, if we lobby for Africa to have a rotating permanent seat for say 4 years and let them have it for the first 4. and then we take the AU commission post. What use is the UN position to us other than prestige? However with the AU post we can reshape Africa, and take advantage of our economic and demographic advantage. But all the GDP figures in the world will not help Nigeria if we dont have functioning power and transport. As Henry has said there are many positive things happening but we are tied up with silly policies. Independent power and transmission and refineries would jump start our economy no end
@Henry i agree with 100%.