NIGERIAN TERRORISTS IN MASS IMPORTATION OF ROCKET LAUNCHERS..PLAN TO DITCH IEDs IN FAVOR OF RPGs • TRAFFICKING CARRIED OUT ACROSS POROUS BORDERS

Mr Abdullahi Dikko Inde, Comptroller General, Nigeria Customs Service

Mr Abdullahi Dikko Inde, Comptroller General, Nigeria Customs Service

SUNDAY PUNCH
5 August, 2012

Terrorists behind the rash of bombings in the North have a game-changer, as they plan to replace the Improvised Explosive Devices with rocket launchers and rocket-propelled grenades,investigation revealed on Friday.

Consequently, massive importations of these high-calibre weapons are currently on. RPGs are explosive projectile weapons used by insurgents to attack or destroy targets from long distances, while rocket launchers are devices that are used to propel missiles or explosives from long ranges.
It was gathered that their planned adoption of this new strategy would help them evade arrests by security agents.

A security operative said these weapons could be shot from long distances,thereby giving attackers sufficient time to escape, just as they could cause great havoc on their targets.Many of the rocket launchers, our correspondent gathered, were smuggled into the country across the porous borders in the North.

Confirming that massive rocket launchers are in the country illegally, spokesman of the police, Frank Mba, in an exclusive interview, described it as a “worrisome development.” He said, “We are aware of the presence of rocket launchers and I assure you that we are not sleeping. “I cannot give you details of all we are doing, but I can authoritatively say we are doing all we can to cut off their supply chain.”

Mba further said the country was receiving immense international support from Economic Community of West African states and beyond.
“I can tell you that all the Joint Task Force discoveries were made possible through international support; they were not by chance. The discoveries were made possible through deliberate, conscious intelligence gathering from outside the country. “To tell you how far our international cooperation has reached, the Inspector-General of Niger Republic was in Nigeria a few days ago where he had fruitful meeting with our IG, Mohammed Abubakar.

“Also, the hierarchy of the INTERPOL, the world’s largest police organisation, have been having meeting with us in the past few weeks. “This shows that even though we are worried, the good news is that the support from home and abroad is helping us face these security challenges.”

The Nigerian Immigration Service had earlier told SUNDAY PUNCH that the number of unapproved routes into the country were not known, making it extremely difficult for security agencies to track illegal aliens moving in and out of the country.
The NIS Public Relations Officer, Mr. Joachim Olumba, had said, “One fact that is undeniable is that our borders are porous. And many people think it is because security agents collect money and allow people to enter the country without proper documentation.

“But the problem is basically the fact that the structure of our borders makes effective policingabsolutely difficult. “We are talking about over 4000km land borders and over 800km borders along the ocean. In some places, these border areas are mountainous; in some places, they are in the jungle. There are countless illegal routes into the country,” he said.

An anti-terrorism official with the Nigeria Police Force told our correspondent that the attempt to use rocket weapons by terrorists was the latest challenge security operatives were battling with.
He said, “We are not at war. Why are these people bringing rocket launchers into this country?Rocket launchers are used in only wars! What do they want to turn Nigeria into? We are still contending with Improvised Explosive Devices and now this.

“Unfortunately, there are too many porous and illegal borders in this country. In Adamawa alone, there are about 25 illegal routes into Nigeria from neighbouring countries. “They have been sneaking the rockets in and even though we don’t have a figure, it is quite substantial. And when they can’t bring the rockets in through the border, they may connive with unscrupulous officials at the border to bring them in through the ports.“The use of rocket grenades and launchers allows them run away before we get there. Some of the launchers can go as far as 900m.”

Speaking on the source of the military weapons, the highly-placed source said “extremist Arab countries” were supplying the weapons to terrorists in Nigeria. “It is no longer news that the Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb have penetrated this country and we can easily tell where these rockets are coming from. “We don’t have the sophistication to manufacture these war weapons. Iran, Yemen, Syria, Libya and others are suppliers.”

Just last Monday,10 RPGs and other sophisticated weapons were recovered at the Nigeria-Chad boundary in Borno State by the Joint-Task Force.
JTF spokesman, Lt. Col. Sagir Musa, had said the weapons were recovered following a gun battle which left some gunmen dead in Daban Masara border town.

The following day, JTF Operation Restore Order, said it intercepted more rocket launchers, rocket bombs and AK 47 rifles being transported by suspected terrorists to Maiduguri, capital of Borno State. Two suspected terrorists who accompanied the arms were killed in the Monguno Local Government Area of the state.

Musa said the arms were concealed in a blue Toyota Hilux vehicle going towards Maiduguri.
“The arms included eight rocket launchers, 10 rocket bombs, 10 rocket chargers, two AK 47 rifles and 13 magazines,” he said.

Similarly, on April 5, 2012, security operatives seized 51 rocket launchers in a house in Barunde area of Gombe metropolis. Director of SSS in Gombe State, Mr. Bitrus Asha, who conducted journalists round the ‘factory’ said, “Apart from the rocket launchers, 48 bags of fertiliser, sulphuric acid and cortex items were recovered. Other items recovered were detonators, remote control devices, different types of chemicals, six containers for preparation of IEDs and other items.”

The weapons have also found their way to the South-West as rocket launchers were recovered from a robbery gang in April. Operatives of the Federal Special Anti-Robbery Squad, Lagos, said two rocket launchers; a grenade and a General Multipurpose Machine Gun were among the arms recovered from the gang that specialised in bank raids.

A combined team of security operatives had in October 2010, intercepted 13 containers laden with arms and ammunition including rocket launchers, cartridges and hand grenades at the AP Moller Terminals in Apapa. The Apapa Area Customs Controller then, Abdulkadir Azerema, had said the contents of the containers were not declared before they were intercepted.

The first container that was opened by the various security agencies that carried out examinations discovered 24 crates of rocket launchers and other weapon of mass destruction.
The containers with numbers 7869612,7827707, 7868370, 7869356, 7870064, 7866819, 7868318, 7868771, 7866676, 9478240, 7868431, 1301980 and 7869464, were suspected to have been shipped from Iran.
The Federal Government later arrested and arraigned an Iranian, Azim Aghajani, and three Nigerians, for arms trafficking before an Abuja Chief Magistrate Court in November, 2010.Nigeria reported the seizure of the shipment to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions against Iran.

According to the United States Department of State Country Reports on Terrorism 2011, the Boko Haram insurgent group killed 590 people last year. At a briefing last Tuesday, Coordinator, Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, Daniel Benjamin, said Africa experienced 978 terrorist attacks, with Nigeria alone accounting for about 20 per cent. The report said Boko Haram was more vicious in 2011 than in 2010.

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About beegeagle

BEEG EAGLE -perspectives of an opinionated Nigerian male with a keen interest in Geopolitics, Defence and Strategic Studies
This entry was posted in ARMED CONFLICT, BOKO HARAM ISLAMIC STATE MOVEMENT, COUNTERINSURGENCY OPERATIONS, GLOBAL DEFENCE NEWS, JOINT SECURITY TASK FORCE, MARITIME SAFETY AND SECURITY, NIGERIA, NIGERIA CUSTOMS SERVICE, NIGERIA POLICE FORCE, NIGERIAN MILITARY HISTORY, NIGERIAN PARAMILITARY FORCES, NIGERIAN SPECIAL FORCES, RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM, RISK ANALYSIS, SECURITY ISSUES AND CONCERNS, STATE SECURITY SERVICE, TERRORISM, URBAN GUERRILLA WARFARE, WEST AFRICAN STANDBY FORCE. Bookmark the permalink.

14 Responses to NIGERIAN TERRORISTS IN MASS IMPORTATION OF ROCKET LAUNCHERS..PLAN TO DITCH IEDs IN FAVOR OF RPGs • TRAFFICKING CARRIED OUT ACROSS POROUS BORDERS

  1. beegeagle says:

    Gentlemen, it is now easy to see why terrorists are still able to attack our cops willy nilly in the Far North as compared to the comparatively stellar performance of the NA, Special Forces commandos across the board and the SSS in combat operations.

    How can an ATS officer be saying that “we are not at war” while the Army are rightly telling their troops to assume a war footing – in effect, red alert? If we are not at war, are we at peace? What is all this? Is this not why terrorists are still taking the cops unawares?

    I have said before now that the Kano State Police Command appear to be the only ones who have fully risen to the challenge, even more so than in Borno where the JSTF troops appear to be the only ones saving the cops from major casualties. Yobe State Police Command, after that episode when five cops were gunned down inside a beer parlour at 5pm, have stepped up their game. This might not be unconnected to the fact that unlike Borno where the Army have always maintained a heavy presence, Yobe boasts only about a quarter of the military presence in Borno. So the Police out there know that if they do not shape up, they are likely to get shipped out by terrorists.

    Please gentlemen, let us set aside this wrong notion. It is better to assume that we are at war. Asymmetric warfare is also WARFARE and is actually the mainstay military activity of the modern era – Afghanistan, Iraq, Burma, The Philippines, Yemen, Turkey, Somalia, Algeria, Thailand, Mexico, Ethiopia, Sudan, DR Congo, Senegal, Niger, Mali, Chad, Colombia and Nigeria – are ALL theatres of asymmetric warfare and not frontlines of state-on-state violence. So is the ATS topnotch thinking that only conventional engagements or the seizure of territory by insurgents qualify to be labelled as “warfare?”

    Truth is, the llikelihood of ever seeing rebels or insurgents seizing and holding onto territory in Nigeria is very remote. Rebel groups understand the real strengths of the Nigerian Army and are aware that attempting to hold onto territory would be a veritable shortcut to suicide. The Army will drive through in a few short days without any lulls in between. It is as simple as that. That is the reason why MEND never held onto territory in the Niger Delta. That is why Boko Haram are not holding onto territory.

    So I cannot exactly tell if the ATS Oga expects to see Boko Haram in T55 tanks and 122mm artillery first before he knows what time it is – wartime! Perhaps his definition is wrong.

    That said, the point should be knocked in from top to bottom by the can-do IGP for whom most Nigerians have a lot of respect on account of his antecedents as a fixer and an enforcer, THAT we are at war. Unless this is done, I am afraid that many more cops are likely to get surprised by terrorists.

    Time is of the essence. As always, I kid you not.

  2. peccavi says:

    Doesn’t make sense. IED’s are the perfect insurgent weapon, high damage, low risk. they cause not just attrition but tie up resources to counter them.
    If this large importation of RPG’s is true then it means that they are actually planning more direct attacks, RPG’s have a large signature, they aren’t ideal for one off attacks.
    Interesting development

    • tim says:

      RPG says something…… Weapons supply from a country, or proxies , maybe from libya, or iran or someother countries

  3. beegeagle says:

    But it is true. The Multinational Joint Task Force at the Baga border seized a cache of eight RPGs last week. Rampaging through the streets of Maiduguri and with eight RPGs, I hate to imagine how many soft-skinned Toyota Hilux and Ford Ranger 4WDs would be knocked out.

    In altercations between the JSTF and Boko Haram, it is the terrorists who are responsible for nearly all of the explosions. They have improvised grenades by making IEDs in cans of Coke, Fanta and Maltina. It does not take rocket science to see that because they are lobbed by hand, they have to get into Close Quarter Combat with the security forces before these IEDs can be effective. Not that the terrorists care though. Since they are out to instill fear into the populace, if the IEDs do not hit the troops, they will hit innocent civilians.

    The painful part is that journalists know that this is the principal cause of collateral damage during gun battles but insist on LYING and creating the impression that victims got caught in crossfire. Even if they did, the JSTF are trained in Close Quarter Combat and in Fighting in Built Up Areas whereas the terrorists are not. So who is responsible for the collateral damage?

    ANYWAY, this is the reason why some of us on this board consistently harp on the need for the FG to ramp up stocks of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected(MRAP) vehicles in the NA inventory. There shall always be wars to be fought either at home or abroad, so with or without Boko Haram, we would have the necessary combat assets handy. We need more Casspir Mk.VIs, Ivema GILA, DTM Springbuck VI and such types, alongside nimble tactical mine-protected light patrol vehicles such as the Oshkosh SandCat and Mahindra Marskman. Better to be overly prepared than to be deficient.

    Our security worries are not going to disappear by wishful thinking, It would take consistent and major investment for the turnaround to be achieved.

    In the maritime domain, for instance, we have been hedging and stalling on the acquisition of capital ships for the Navy but NOTHING short of the saturation of our EEZ with platforms will dramatically bring down the tide of insecurity in our maritime domain. As Doziex likes to say, we either pay now or pay later. The choice is ours entirely.

    I mean, why not spend $500 million acquiring oceangoing platforms once and for all and plug the loopholes by over 85% in one hop instead of weeping every year and shouting about ‘competing demands’ while losing an estimated $1 billion monthly to illegal bunkering, piracy, the sabotage of facilities etc and thereby making the ‘competing demands’ more acute?

    Since 2009, we are estimated to have lost over $30 billion to illegal bunkering, illegal fishing, the sabotage of facilities by insurgents and piracy. An injection of $500 million over the corresponding period would most likely have kept that loss down to about $7.5 billion, subject to continuing investments in the acquisition of platforms.

    So is anyone saying that an investment of $500m to stave off the haemorrhage of $22.5 billion is not money well spent? Na ‘siddon look’ we dey. They can do it now or do it later when the problem gets out of hand.

    For an outlay of $500m today, the NN can get

    * two Makassar-class LPDs $100m
    * three Knud-Rassmussem OPVs $150m
    * three used Pohang corvettes $90m
    * three Damen 8313 FRPVs $60m
    * three Shaldag Mk III FPCs
    * six 32 metre OCEA Coastal Patrol Craft

    RECAP(MARITIME SECURITY THREATS)

    http://beegeagle.wordpress.com/2011/03/26/nigerian-navy-acquire-the-warship-uscgc-chase/

    http://beegeagle.wordpress.com/2011/10/23/readers-question-do-the-nigerian-navy-require-hmas-kanimbla-and-hmas-manoora/

  4. Henry says:

    The nigerian police force is an embarrassment to this nation. If the commander of a supposed ant-terror unit, can come out and proclaim that after the loss of 3,000 people , a taunt at the president of the federal republic and the intent to commit harm to the president of the federal republic, and the deaths of over 500 police officers, that we are not at war!!! What then is the point of having a police force?? It should just be the service chiefs and their various agencies, SSS and the NSCDC. The police should then better be disbanded.
    The police is a critical element, infact the most important part on the war on terror. Without an effective police force, the war on terror is doomed to fail. When all is said and done, and the military, all gone to their barracks, it is the police that would maintain the peace. As we have seen and read, the ATS commander, those not believe there is anything to fuss about. Let me just believe that he was taken out of context or misinterpreted.
    With only 22,000 men, it is impossible for the customs service to effectively police an area appox. the size of the texas border with mexico. The americans have also struggled with the flow of arms and drugs from the mexican side ( even with the help of any equally equipped and rich mexican military). The flow of RPG’s are to be expected and shouldn’t come as a suprise to any nigerian with basic knowledge of the sahel region. The fall of the qhadaffi regime. And the instability of chad, niger and mali , in effect means that small/ medium weapons would find it’s way to boko-haram.
    It does however mean that the NIA has to step up it’s game and the customs service has to show 100% commitment on the areas it mans and patrols, no matter how tight it’s budget is. All the generals in the army are well aware of the fact that the nigerian army is at war, but the police continues to believe that this is some kind of illusion (pe harps that was why they let kabiru sokoto run away, I’m sure they believed that he would eventually come back to his cell), and a dream to would just pass away when they open their eyes. We beg the police to please wake up to their responsibility as the primary custodian of peace in nigeria.

  5. beegeagle says:

    I wonder!

    All the countries in our situation – contending with Al-Qaeda affiliated local groups – Algeria, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Pakistan are very clear-headed about the fact that they are at war..a War on Terror.

    Then, BH are attacking the HOME of a sitting Vice President and engaging guards in a gunfight and launching suicide attacks a Deputy Governor, churches, congregations and lately, mosques and Emirs and this Oga is saying what exactly please?

    Is that any different from the ethos which informed the 9-11 attacks which the Americans recognised by sight as “an act of war” and accordingly went to war a world away in Afghanistan? Are the antics of Boko Haram any more benign than the Kamikaze attacks on Pearl Harbour by Japanese loose cannons, forcing America to declare war on Japan? They attack police stations, the Police HQ, kill policemen, kill themselves and an officer thinks there is a tea party going on around here?

    Na wa o…na real wa. What is the ANTI TERRORIST SQUAD bigwig actually saying now? If he, an ATS officer, does not even possess the right mindset at a time like this, what is to say that the ATS would even keep themselves out of harm’s way..never mind protecting the unarmed populace of over 165 million compatriots? Boko Haram which declared their intention of changing the FG over a year ago? So that in itself is not an act of war or the military and security personnel are not agents of the government which they seek to violently overthrow?

    Man don dey fear som of dis we pipul…honestly. This is a very, very strange understanding of the situation by an ATS officer. Call it terrorism, insurgency, armed conflict – it is WAR.

    • doziex says:

      Oga Beeg, i am just as baffled as you are, that a top ATS brass ..Anti Terrorist Squad BAH ? doesn’t think nigeria is at war, and is whining about the tactics of boko haram a group that has sworn to destroy nigeria as is ?

      He he ! I told you guys, that even some of our security bosses & generals require mentoring. Sooner or later, we are going to have to address this obvious issue.

      As the rank & file, and tactical units receive expert training & mentoring, why should we assume that their leadership are all knowing and require no refresher courses of their own ?

      There is nothing worse than a clueless general, issuing incompetent commands to well trained personnel. Who have no choice but to obey the incompetent general to every body’s detriment.

      And you know nigeria’s OGA is god society, gives no recourse for one who challenges authority.

      • beegeagle says:

        OGA ke…na “Baba” wey dem dey use nowadays even for a youthful 53 year old who has hit the top..hehe. Sycophants with a limitless capacity to ingratiate themselves to A-Listers abound everywhere. Diezani and Stella Oduah sef go be “Mama” to dem. Justification -dem say “na pesin wey hold pass wey be senior”. That is how far gone we are really. So ‘Oga’ and ‘Sir’ don’t do it anymore. Na ‘Baba’ and ‘Mama’ we dey now…more like “owner of my life”

        Anyway, it is instructive that the Oga at ATS was quoted on a day when five soldiers died trying to make the country safe for the rest of us. Yet he says we are not at war? Did those gallant troops pay the supreme price at a picnic then?

        So much for not being at war. What kind of security report would that officer write? For as long as the Northern Insurgency has lasted, I have never heard of five soldiers getting killed in any way – be it suicide attacks, gunfights, ambush..name it. It happened today, same day we are getting told by an ANTI TERRORISM top cop that we are not at war.

        The sooner they forget about the labelling and face the business as it has clearly presented itself for the discerning to fathom, the better for the embattled people who have to live through these times.

        Picture the children living in the conflict zones on the Jos Plateau, in the Far North and in the Niger Delta and what all this is doing to their impressionable minds? Even elsewhere in Nigeria, those kids watching on TV and reading about gun battles, suicide bombers might just grow up thinking that these are pretty much routine activities.

        The leaders of tomorrow are almost certainly growing up in the shadow of violence such as begets more violence. That is why in Somalia, Afghanistan and Yemen, the conflicts renew themselves as kids become men. There is no other way of life that they have known.

        The sooner we set the nation straight, the better for our unity and our future.

  6. doziex says:

    Gentlemen, I don’t know where to start. Should we rehash our year old debates of how destructive the addition of RPGs would be to the north east ?

    No need, the nigerian army knows all about these weapons. From liberia to sierra leone to the niger delta.

    From my observation of NA over the years, I have noticed that there is an armament threshold that that if a rebel group crosses, NA cannot deal. I mean nigerian troops would slug it out with any body “Death before Dishonor style” , but does anyone remember what happened to the civilian population of freetown as a result of that battle ?

    RPGs, GPMGs and Technicals( trucks mounted with anti aircraft guns) are bad news for the nigerian army, and most conventional forces for that matter. Ask the soviets in afghanistan, ask the russians in chechenya, ask the ethiopians about their initial foray into somalia, Ask the US about “black hawk down”

    Nigeria is just beginning to see the wisdom of investing in MRAPs, well the RPG-7 is an MRAP, APC & a Tank destroyer.

    So, I suggest we do a few things RAPIDLY.

    On the DEFENSE, we should rapidly acquire MRAPs from south africa, USED & NEW. We have run out of time, and cannot afford to wait for our indigenous APCs to come online.

    These vehicles should be equipped with passive & active anti-RPG protective measures (1) Cage armor for mraps & apcs, (2) ERAs- explosive reactive armor for tanks (3) At least inquire about the isreali Iron Fist program.

    On the Offensive, NIA in conjunction with international partners need to look into Buying up the surplus libyan stocks. If we buy them, then the insurgents can’t. Most of the sellers are just looking for money.

    They US has successfully done this in the former soviet states, buying up weapons deemed dangerous to their interests in unsavory hands. They bought thousands of igla SAMs to keep them of the international arms market.

  7. Henry says:

    Oga doxiex, your recommendation is top notch, but I’m going to pick a hole in the requirement of the nigerian government, buying weapons from libya.1) We cannot afford to buy all the weapons in the market (from libya), we are not as rich as the us, even when u compare the wealth we have now to what the US had during and after the fall off the USSR. And besides, there are over 500 million light weapons around the world( un registered weapons) and a significant chunk of those weapons are in the african continent. Let’s say 40%. 2ndly, even if let’s say, we are able to purchase as many weapons, it does not mean millions more will not still enter nigeria.

    What I propose is that the NIA step up it’s efforts overseas, in the west and east african region. Take for instance the tuaregs in northern mali. There are two different groups in mali, with different ambitions. The ansar dine( which is backed buy AQIM) has run over the other tuareg group( can’t remember their name) out of northern mali. Ansar dine now has an area larger than northern nigeria under it’s control, providing safe havens for the training AQIM and her sister agencies, providing safe passage for smuggled libyan weapons and AA guns, and of course boko-haram also receives training in northern mali from which the launch attacks in nigeria.
    What the governments of both nigeria and algeria should do is arm/ train the other rebel group which wants a state of azawad in northern mali, to fight ansar dine and dislodge the group, so as to prevent AQIM and boko-haram from being able to on their respective home countries. What I’m saying is simply repilicate the pakistani ISI tactics with the haqqani network in afghanistan, using the intelligence agencies of both algeria and nigeria (After all, pakistan, nigeria and algeria are comparable in terms of economy and military strength). Ofcourse different motives, but the same idea.

    Hopefully, if it is succesful,the govts. Of algeria and nigeria can push the government of mali to grant the region of northern mali, some sort of autonomy, like is the case in barcelona spain, hongkong or american samoa ( there are many examples).
    Everybody goes home happy in the end.

    • doziex says:

      Oga Henry, by suggesting nigerian intelligence seek out the illegal vendors of Khaddafi’s arsenal and buy up their wares, I didn’t mean we should purchase everything on offer.

      We could be smart, and kill 2 birds with 1 stone. First, we should focus on weapons we don’t want to end up in boko haram’s hands. ( RPGs, mortars, PKMs/GPMGs, 12.5 mm anti aircraft guns. )
      Secondly, we can transfer the acquired weapons to our own security forces. Such as the civil defense corps and the nigerian police force.

      If nigerian army brass were sharp, they would have already been in libya looking for deals on some weapons systems. e.g the Palmaria self propelled artillery is a weapon system we have in common with libya.
      If these expensive systems are up for sale, that is those that survived the NATO bombardment, why shouldn’t NA use them to shore up it’s stores. Likewise libya’s C-130 hercules parts & engines.

  8. peccavi says:

    Guys we are missing the point.
    Why would you move from IEDs to RPG’s. You cannot disguise an RPG, it is a weapon and looks like a weapon. You can disguise and deploy IED’s all day and night without discovery. So the question is why change?
    RPG’s are only useful for direct fire attacks, i.e you need to see, aim and fire at your target generally putting yourself at risk of counter fire. If BH is stockpiling RPG’s to my mind it indicates several things
    1) they have solidified a weapon supply line which can transport these types of ordnance, I would guess up to 60-81mm mortars.
    2) They plan to launch mass attacks against hardened targets as well as small arms ambushes against military and political vehicle convoys.
    3) They are not defeated. They are operating on a completely illogical dynamic. Rather than going from sticks and blades to small arms to crude IEDs, to sophisticated IED’s, they have gone from sticks and blades to IEDs, sophisticated IEDs and now back to small arms. Why?
    4) They intend to take and hold territory. At least for limited times and cause casualties by attacking the relief force. I suspect that there will also be a determined anti air ambush to take down helicopters
    The Deduction from this is
    1) BH still has the weapons, transport, supplies, safe houses etc to maintain their current tempo of ops as well as maintain their supply chains. As most seem to be Nigerians this is as depressing as its worrying, i suspect if they are going into small arms attacks we will see Malians, Nigeriens featuring quite widely
    2) They cannot hope to hold territory or face the NA/ SSS in straight fights but they don’t need to as they have the whole of the North to pick targets from. They will find vulnerable points and attack
    3) The NA will be overstretched and will be forced to deploy troops from all over the country to garrison the north, billions will be spent buying off the shelf kit for the boys
    Conclusion:
    The most likely scenario is that the general state of insecurity will continue until 2015 with entire portions of the country unable to participate in elections, somehow in some way this will benefit the sponsors of the violence. Either by causing the elections to be postponed or more easily rigged as the palliative measures of (NYSC, biometrics etc) will be unable to be used.
    The worst case scenario is that the massive deployment of troops will be a cover for a coup, in which ‘disloyal’ troops will assassinate the President, and certain officers will take power ‘to restore order’.
    suggestions
    1) Cut the smuggling routes. The same routes that are used for consumer goods, fuel, drugs etc will be used for weapons. Cut those route and you starve the insurgency
    2) Start prosecuting these corruption cases, releases the suspects names to Interpol and get travel bans, asset freezes will follow. The sponsors of BH will be too busy saving their necks to follow up
    3) Start fortifying bases, police posts and government/ religious targets. Start investing in APC’s. Particularly the made in Nigeria variants

  9. Spirit says:

    Fellow patriots,

    As for the “officer” that is “wondering wether we are at war or not”, I am not surprised because a a former Nigeria Military Attaché to South Africa and a former Military Administrator once said “he was disappointed that some Nigerians were spying for South Africa”! Can you imagine that? How can a soldier be disappointed that some of his countrymen are spying for a rival country? What do these guys learn NDA for Christ sake? What is his business with being disappointed? Is he not suppose to be busy with how to “turn them” to ” doubles” or how to acquire ” assets” in SA to counter their moves?

    Dear ATS officer, are you waiting for the detonation of a Nuke in Abuja before you know Nigeria is at war? you better wake up from your slumber!

    “A stitch in time …..” .. Now we have failed to do that , I pray 20 stitches will be able to stop this great gash in the fabric of Nigeria.

    Now BH has ” up the ante” with the introduction of RPGs. My God! this is very very bad for NA. This campaign will become very very costly in terms of casualties and finance.
    1)Now, we need all the armours ( as mentioned by Doziez above) for increase survivability.
    2) We need greater mobility (air assets) to be able to quickly track down and liquidate the lauches.
    3) We also need as many Amebos as possible now (as RPGs and rockets) exhaust are easily/better detected from the air.

    Mr Presudent, pls get the Army Air Wing up in the air ASAP! And please give them something more lethal than the Augusta sir.

  10. Bossjoe says:

    I personally think this should be solved by intelligence gathering i mean wat is the NIA doing ..ok take for example the U.S and the whole fast and furios thing if it had gone as planned it woulda been a big step in curbin drug violence my point is mayb nigerian intelligence can carry out an operation similar to dat but with different steps than the u.s thought or we could send undercover agents (please tell me we already have undercover agents working with dem ’72 virgins lovers’ terrorists) P.S: sorry i’m typin woth fone so i cant fully explain in detail

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