* UN council to discuss report on arms flows in Sahel
* Nigeria, Niger, others worried about Boko Haram
* Countries fear increasing Boko-Qaeda links – UN
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 26 (Reuters)
The Libyan civil war might have given militant groups in Africa’s Sahel region like Boko Haram and al Qaeda access to large weapons caches, according to a U.N. report released on Thursday.
The report on the impact of the Libyan
civil war on countries of the Sahel region that straddle the Sahara – including Nigeria, Niger and Chad – also says some national authorities believe the Islamist sect Boko Haram, which killed more than 500 people last year and more than 250 this year in Nigeria,has increasing links to al Qaeda’s North African wing.
The U.N. Security Council will discuss the report, which was prepared by a U.N. assessment team that met with officials from countries in the region, at a meeting later on Thursday. “The governments of the countries visited indicated that, in spite of efforts to control their borders, large quantities of weapons and ammunition from Libyan stockpiles were smuggled into the Sahel region,” the report said.
Such weapons include “rocket-propelled grenades, machine guns with anti-aircraft visors,automatic rifles,ammunition, grenades, explosives(Semtex), and light anti-aircraft artillery (light calibre bi-tubes) mounted on vehicles,” it said.
More advanced weapons such as surface-to-air-missiles and man-portable air defense systems, known as MANPADS, may also have reached groups in the region, the report said.
U.N. special envoy to Libya Ian Martin, however, has told the Security Council that Libya’s missing stocks of MANPADS have largely remained inside the country. The report said some countries believe weapons have been smuggled into the Sahel by former fighters in Libya – Libyan army regulars and mercenaries who fought on behalf of former leader Muammar Gaddafi, who was ousted and killed by rebels.
Some of the countries told the
assessment team that they had
registered an increase in arms trade across West Africa. “Some of the weapons may be hidden in
the desert and could be sold to terrorist groups like al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Boko Haram or other criminal organizations,” the U.N. report said. It also made clear that Nigeria was not the only country worried about the activities of Boko Haram.
Officials from Niger told the team that Boko Haram appeared to have al Qaeda links and “was already active in spreading its ideology and propaganda and, in some cases, had succeeded in closing down public schools.”
The report says that some national authorities believe Boko Haram members from Nigeria and Chad had received training at al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb training camps in Mali in the summer of 2011.
“Although Boko Haram has concentrated its terrorist acts inside Nigeria, seven of its members were arrested while transiting through the Niger to Mali,in possession of documentation on manufacturing of explosives, propaganda leaflets and names and contact details of members of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb they were allegedly planning to meet,” the report said.
Links between al Qaeda and Boko Haram have become “a growing source of concern for the countries of the region,” it said.
Beegeagle's Blog 
Na today?
Well, we have been saying that soon enough we shall see BH insurgents mounting cross-border attacks in Toyota 4WDs armed with 107mm RCLs and ZPU-2 14.5mm HMGs.
We need to prepare for these guys are indifferent enough to do just that, if only to hug the headlines – something which thrills them to no end. We need to plan towards forestalling that.
Chadians love attacks in 4WDs mounted with Type 63 107mm MRLs, similar calibre RCLs and 12.7mm/14.5mm/23mm AAGs. Remember that the 1980s war with Libya in the Aouzou Strip was dubbed the “Toyota War?”. Does anyone remember the invasion(Feb 2008?) of Ndjamena by rebels who stormed the city in a convoy of 300 Toyota gun-trucks launched from inside Sudan?
Are we preparing for that prospect as insurgents go looting banks and now probably have millions of dollars to spend on cheap arms? Are we preparing to ward off that kind of onslaught? We should be mounting 107mm MRLs and 23mm cannons on some Toyotas as preemptive measures since the Otokar Cobra and Panhard VBLs are not armed with anything as destructive as those.
We mean every word of the foregoing. We should prepare for that prospect which seems like a distinct possibility for the very near future. They know what they do not have in their arsenal, know what would optimize their chances against Nigerian troops and are almost certainly working towards that after the major setbacks which they suffered in Damaturu and Potiskum.
Has anyone thought about the possibility or catastrophic impact of an invading convoy of just 25 Toyota gun-trucks setting out from inside Niger Republic at midnight and arriving in Kano at 0500 hrs, suicide bombers in tow, IEDs and grenades being flung in all directions while 107mm MRLs let go salvo after salvo in fully built-up areas?
Given the element of surprise entailed, what would our response be from the perspective of quick reaction and commensurate firepower with mobility entailed? To drive home the point that these guys have no intentions of talking to anybody, watch and see whether these indiscriminate attacks do not continue.
Anyone seeking to draw parallels between Niger Delta militants and BH insurgents is not being sincere to themselves. The Niger Delta bears the nation’s wealth as currently exploited while BH’s home base are merely receivers with expectations. The only common denominator is the fact that ND militants raised money through acts of criminality – kidnapping and oil bunkering while BH insurgents are very keen on armed robbery.
But ND militants were never bare-faced and indiscriminate killers. They restricted their attacks to security forces. They never killed people wilfully or shot into mosques. BH insurgents are cold-blooded killers who have killed elected local officials, chiefs, muslims, innocent tea brewers, have shot into churches, thrown bombs at same and even killed the mourners who came together to grieve over same.
In much the same way as Joseph Kony of Uganda and the duo of Thomas Lugbanga(Ituri district) and Jean-Pierre Bemba of the DR Congo have ICC indictments hanging over their small heads, the leaders of this mindless insurgent group should be chraged for crimes against humanity. No less.
Yeah Beeg, this is the nightmare scenerio that has kept me up at night for some years now. With chadian nationals already involved in boko haram raids, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that they would soon be importing their favorite tactics.
Be fore warned, the nigerian army is not ready to counter this tactic. Which is essentially, light manouver warfare with anti-armour, anti-aircraft and anti-personnel aspects to it.
In addition to the chadians defeating the libyans with this tactic, the recent anti gaddafi rebels used it effectively; albeit with NATO air cover. The UNITA rebels used it successfully against MPLA and cuban forces.
It has featured heavily in somalia. The darfur rebels (JEM) with support from chad lunched an assault with several hundred “tacticals” that penetrated the outskirts of khartom.
Khartom later returned the favor, backing chadian rebels in you guessed it, tacticals, who nearly over ran Idriss deby’s presidential palance. In both cases however,these assaults were defeated by HELICOPTER GUNSHIPS.
The nigerian army had some inconsistent experience with this tactic in liberia and sierra leone. In liberia, NA defences withstood charles taylor’s assaults on monrovia. But suffered more casualties counter attacking to regain territory.
In sierra leone, liberian and burkinabe mercenaries joined RUF/AFRC to assault the kono diamond fields. According to some accounts, anti-aircraft guns(usually mounted) and heavy mortars were used against NA troops. Several ERC-90 sagaies and piranha mowags were destroyed or abandoned on the battle field. The rusted hulls still litter the mines in kono. And charles taylor’s anti-terror squads inspite of a UN arms embargo, rode around is some piranha mowags.
The only case where this 4WD or tacticals was found to be ineffective, was when the iraqi army abandoned their armour and uniforms, and assaulted the heavy manouver armoured columns of the invading US army.
The iraqis used dismounted RPG gunners and pick up mounted anti-aircraft guns to no avail. Helicopter gunships and humvee mounted 50 cals kept them at bay.
Sorry Beeg, by tacticals, I mean’t technicals. And by khartom, I mean’t khartoum.
Just imagine all of that, Doziex. Rather than showing some urgency in preparing the military for this new kind of challenge, we can even stomach the idea of DIALOGUE with terrorists who are training and equipping with a view to getting even more proficient?
The next major attack by the insurgents would probably be an invasion by technicals. Unless we prepare to counter that possibility immediately, the consequences, given how unscrupulous and bloodthirsty these goons are known to be, would be so bad that it might turn many people against the FG. The FG need to exhibit some b*lls for creeps’ sake! What is all this offensive talk about? Has the sovereignty of the FG been abdicated?
With wars in the Red Sea Hills of the east, the Nuba mountains and Abyei and Darfur, why have the Sudanese government not capitulated or they do not like peace? Like you pointed out, the Chadians and the Sudanese at different times launched thousands of insurgents in hundreds of Toyota gun-trucks which were armed to the teeth against each other’s capitals. Have they dialogued with the adversary?
The Sudanese signed away South Sudan but not Darfur. What is the parallel between MEND and BH? The entire globe accepted that MEND have major grouses, what is BH’s? That they were not allowed to hold onto the Presidency as a matter of divine rights? That they produced what and were cheated of a fair share of what? That we should all become muslims by force?
Going back through the years, the least politically patronised region of Nigeria has been the Southeast. They have received less revenue inflows from the Federation Account. But the Ibo who have received little or nothing from the FG since the end of the Civil War live better than people in all parts of the North, even as that region has controlled the levers of power for two-thirds of Nigeria’s post-colonial history without anything apart from the aggrandisement of a rotten and supremely manipulative power elite who have only catered for the interests of themselves and their families while the crushing majority of northern plebians live in abject poverty to show for it?
The woeful human development indices of the region started today? Nigerian history records that the genesis of the developmental retardation of the North can be traced to the early years of colonial rule, when in a self-destructive show of stereotypical intolerance which has persisted to this day, the traditional nobility of the region requested that the British keep “christianity and christian education out of the emirates of Northern Nigeria”. Lagging behind by 50 years as we speak, terrorists are still trying to wage war against secular education? Under Abacha in 1994, Delta State ALONE turned out more graduates than all 19 northern states put together…even when they were under the jackboots of an oppressive dictator!
Like the Southeast have forged ahead by dint of the people’s industrious nature, how about BH and their puppeteers get a life outside of the corridors of federal power? That self-indulgent fixation with controlling power at the centre must stop. Nobody “escorted” them to the Commonwealth of Nigeria. It is every region’s RIGHT to aspire to leadership. The North contributes no more than 10% to the nation’s coffers yet those who contribute 90% to the national exchequer are supposed to watch from the sidelines as their nation is run into the ground by other Nigerians? Dr Jonathan SHALL rule until 2015. Anyone who cannot live with that fact should go fall on a sword or hug a NEPA transformer. Absolute, utter nonsense. Just imagine! Shagari denied the South a shot at the Presidency in 1983, contrary to the NPN’s gentleman’s agreement and in 1993 MKO Abiola was robbed of his chance to be President. Nobody levied war against the beneficiaries who were all Northerners! So what is unprecedented about Goodluck’s rise to the Presidency?
Back to Mr President, let us get the military PREPARED, sir. Your Excellency is about to lose some of us already on account of disenchantment, sir. The military need HARDWARE and training, not peace talks. We have painted the scenario of a fullscale invasion. The wider region is awash with arms and mercenaries who fought on Gaddafi’s side. They have restarted the Tuareg rebellion in Mali as we speak with arms and knowhow garnered in Libya.
In no time at all, Nigerian insurgents backed by very rugged Chadian and Malian mercenaries shall probably attempt an invasion.
In the face of continuing aggression by insurgents and their widespread use of IEDs and ambush tactics, we need 500 units of MRAPs for the Army. The Americans have thousands of up-armoured Hummer gun-trucks. Let us have 500 units of those as well. Those, equipped with 12.7mm or 14.5mm machine guns are what the Army would need for the urban run-around which is sure to come.
Let the Army install 107mm RCLs and MRLs on their Toyota 4WDs so that they are ready to face any invaders. What are we doing about attack helicopters to counter that threat, sir? Light helicopters as well. Insurgents are operating from Mali, Chad and Niger and our F7 jets have a short flight radius. How about acquiring a mix of factory refurbished(therefore, immediately deployable) Su-27s and brand-new Su-30 jets which can strike at hostile targets 1,000 miles beyond our borders, now that neighbours are most likely to cooperate.
If we want peace, Mr President, we have to prepare for war. The most precious commodity at periods such as this is TIME. Let us do the needful quickly, sir.
Such an attack would actually play to Nigeria’s strengths.Massing that number of vehicles will leave them susceptible to air attack and unless BH is preparing something really nasty I doubt they could defeat or challenge Nigeria’s AH or fast air capabilities.
I dont think we are yet at that stage of the conflict, a small force depends on unpredictability, technicals tie you into a logisitc chain, i.e you need to fuel and lubricate vehicles, arm them, concentrate them for attacks and disperse them after attacks etc.
In order to munt such attacks they would need a space relatively secure from air attack where they could secure and hide their vehicles but close enough to their target areas.
If they learn from the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, I guess the best tactic would be mortar or 122/ 105mm rocket attacks on bases and population centres. Generally inaccurate but psychologically devastating.
A few attacks on isolated border posts with techncals might arise but once AH is forward deployed those attacks would diminish
MR beeagle I hope you are not the only one barking in the wind LIKE churchill was in 1933 OR muritala was in 1967. G.E.J. is losing me because
1) I AM A HAWK and i don’t AND WILL NEVER BELIEVE IN DIALOUGE WITH THESE knuckle heads
2) IF buhari were ever to come to power AND THAT IS A BIG IF THIS B.H will cease to exist in a week
3) G.E.J . is too SLOW TO ACT ON MILITARY issues DEPITE the advice AZAZI IS GIVING HIM
4) THE LACK OF severe prosecution these GUYS ARE NOT MEND nor are they ARE RELIGIOUS zealots they ARE CRIMMINALS AND MURDERERS THEY SHOULD BE PROSECUTED
Sorry computer acting up
6) B.H. has no plan whatsoever FOR NIGERIA forget implementation of SHARIA IN THE NORTH IT IS ALL LIES
7) THIS IS THE BOGEYMAN that the northern elite created AND LIKE a true FRANKEISTEIN MONSTER they have lost control.
8) This is the part the chills me to the bones THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF NIGERIA WILL VERY ruthless there will be no carrot JUST A STICK, THERE WILL BE NO CONDOLENCE VISIT JUST A STICK HAVING WITNESSED all the things that G.E.J IS DOING he or she wont make the same mistakes
LIBYAN PM CALLS FOR SECURITY MEETING OVER WEAPONS
Sun Jan 29, 2012
(Reuters)
Libyan Prime Minister Abdurrahim al-Keib called on Sunday for a regional security conference to tackle a proliferation of weapons by exiled supporters of former leader Muammar Gaddafi.
The Libyan civil war may have given militant groups in Africa’s Sahel region like Boko Haram and al Qaeda access to large weapons caches, said a U.N. report released on Thursday. “(There is) still a real threat from some of the armed remnants of the former regime who escaped outside the country and still roam freely.
This is a threat for us, for neighbouring countries and our shared relations,” Keib told African Union leaders in Addis Ababa. “My country calls for a regional security conference in Libya of interior and defence ministers of neighbouring
countries,” he told the summit, the first since Gaddafi’s death last year.
A U.N. report said the Libyan civil war may have created a proliferation of small arms, giving militant groups like Boko Haram and al Qaeda access to large weapons caches in Africa’s Sahel region that straddle the Sahara, including Nigeria, Niger and Chad.
The report said some countries believe weapons have been smuggled into the Sahel by former fighters in Libya – Libyan army regulars and mercenaries who fought on behalf of Gaddafi, who was ousted and killed by rebels. Links between al Qaeda and Boko Haram have become a growing source of concern for the countries of the region, the U.N. report said.
The Islamist sect Boko Haram has killed at least 935 people since it launched an uprising in Nigeria in 2009, including 250 in the first weeks of this year, Human Rights Watch said last week.
You are kidding me,Peccavi.
That looks like the next stage of the battles. By now, they must be tired of certain guaranteed outcomes each time that the Army step into a major brawl and they must be making efforts to source for heavier weaponry than GPMGs and RPGs. That could mean 37mm-57mm AA guns, 82mm mortars, 73mm anti-tank guns and 107mm RCLs which woould all be easy to have fitted onto trucks.
Please, do read up a bit more about
*The rebel invasion of Ndjamena
*The rebel invasion of Omdurman
Both events took place during the course of these past five years. Hundreds of gun-trucks moved DIRECTLY for each other’s capitals in lightning drives. That is to say the Sudanese-backed Chadian rebels were launched into battle from inside Darfur and they drove 1,000km to attack Ndjamena. In the case of Sudan, the Chadian-backed JEM rebels were launched into battle from inside Chad and the drove 1,300km to Omdurman, which is the twin city of Khartoum.
In our own case, Kano lies about 100 miles from the Niger border, same goes for Damaturu and Potiskum while Maiduguri lies 125 miles to the south of that border. In the Greater Borno axis, there are a string of important towns such as Nguru,Gashua,Geidam and Kukawa, all of which lie 25-60 miles from the frontier with Niger’s desolate Diffa Prefecture. To the north of these aforementioned towns, it is desert territory complete with giant, golden sand dunes, date palms and oases. It is from those remote and inhospitable precincts that BH, then known as the Taliban, sprang up – in a desert community called Kanamma.
The bottomline is that those far reaches are not going to require complicated logistics to assault – no refuelling needed. That is how close they are.
It is the case that the NA are good at close quarter combat. But there can be no guessing the scale of any potential assault group, so they need to prepare for worst-case scenarios.
The new fleet of Agusta A109 LUH helicopters are dedicated military variants. Let us hope that the 12.7mm HMGs and 68mm rocket pods are already mounted and made ready to complement Mi-24V/Mi-35P attack helicopters. We would not want to use 90mm gun-armed AFVs, artillery or have to call up Alpha and Albatros jets for CAS at any level since these would be urban altercations.
Chased into the desert, it would be OK to deploy jets, large AFVs, MRLs and arty against any invaders.
Clearly, the scale and intensity of the Q4 2011 attacks on far northern towns such as Azare, Geidam and Damaturu and again, the Xmas attacks on Damaturu and Potiskum suggest some level of cross-border preparation therefrom and retreat thereto.
Oga peccavi, these mobile light infantry tactics originate from western paratroop tactics.
They were designed for use against conventional forces like the NA.
So, In angola, the CIA and the SADF adapted it to local conditions as they trained Unita to use it successfully against Cuban and MPLA conventional forces.
In Chad, at around the same time, the french with american help trained and assisted the Chadian forces to resist and repel the conventional Libyan forces.
After then, it seemed to take off in popularity in both govt and rebel forces through out the third world. But africa in particular.
In Somalia, all sides utilized the same tactics, there was no conventional forces to victimised. So inspite of the devastating casualties to civilians and combatants alike, what you had was stalemate.
NOW, you are right to say that against well balanced conventional forces with substantial air assets this tactic is easily defeated. e.g US invading forces in Iraq. But how substantial is nigeria’s air assets ??
Between, the RPG-7s, mounted anti -aircraft guns and very likely SA-7 shoulder fired SAMs, What chance would our handfull of “thin skinned” light jet trainers and the handfull of mi-24v/35 have ?
NAF has no precision targeting that would allow them to fly above danger. And when they fly low to be effective, the rebels would have more than enough to make them pay.
The mounted AAA gun serves a dual purpose. (1) anti- aircraft (2) when lowered to street level, the anti-personel effect is mind boggling.
As for NA’s APCs and Tanks, recoiless rifles, RPG-7s, incendiary bombs and even ATGWs would cause enough sorrow.
Airborne tactics favour lightly armed assaults but as has been seen in Arnhem 1944, Airborne forces cannot face a heavy well balanced conventional force.
Our jet trainers and attack helicopters stand an excellent chance against AAA and SAMs for the very simple reason that an untrained man with a SAM is wasting his time.
This is why I constantly preach the requirement for training, re training, and reorientation rather than just rearmament.
A SAM is a relatively complex weapon system, that you need to train on, even highly trained operators do not have a high success rate. They also need to be stored correctly to function.
The advantage technicals have is their mobility but that mobility still needs roads and logistics, an urban environment is a lonely place for a disorganised mechanised force (or even an organised force). The NA in my belief would make very short work of any technicals that tried to face them in a pitched battle
@peccavi, first off, I hope you are right. That NA’s tip of the spear, it’s armoured and mechanised brigades backed up by self propelled howitzers and attack jets and helicopters; can crush any chadian inspired collection of technicals.
Lets keep an eye on the malians,and see how they make out against a similar force.
About the technicals being roadbound, I had a cousin that used to tell me stories of his desert travels from nigeria to libya. The 4WDs he described, had the ability to traverse the desert without need for roads.
On the MANPADs, the CIA and the ISI were able to train afghan tribal warriors to proficiently use the SAM against soviet targets.
Moreover, Chadian combattants are no strangers to MANPADs. They have been handling them since france and america introduced them in the 80’s.
So even if the AAA and the MANPADs are marginally successful, I doubt if we currently have more than 30 jet trainers operational. So it wouldn’t be hard to whittle them down to ineffective levels.
As for the mi-24/35, I would say they probably number between 6 and 10.
Just battle field attrition alone is a mortal danger to such a small airforce.
This leaves our armoured and mechanised forces. When the american private military company visited nigeria upon OBJ’s inauguration. They revealed that servicability levels in NA’s all important heavy manouver units were down by 80 to 90 percent.
The question is, has the special vehicle plant upgrades changed this percentage appreciably.
I am telling you, there is a reason we are not seeing these Tanks and AFVs deploy during crises.
And IT’S NOT BECAUSE NA’S CONCERN FOR COLLATERAL DAMAGE.
If the damaturu battles, the jos slaughter and the kano massacre have not tempted the NA to deploy MBTs and AFVs, to contain high intensity warfare in these GARRISON towns, I DARE SAY THE FLEET IS STILL UNSERVICABLE.
That leaves the light armoureds such as cascavels, ERC-90 sagaie, AML60/90, VBLs and OTOKARs. These didn’t quite produce a world beating performance in the jan 99 freetown battle against pick up mounted AAA, RCLs,mortars, RPGs, PKMs etc.
* The minimum number of Mi-24V/Mi-35P as of today are ELEVEN – six delivered in 2000(Russia), three Mi-24Vs in 2008(Ukraine) and 2 Mi-24Vs in 2010(Belarus). I have an inexplicable photo of a Mi-25 with a quad-barreled 12.7mm weapon on this blog and a Mi-35P in an unfamiliar scheme of camouflage which could account for the mix of four Mi-24 and Mi-35 helicopters said to have been delivered on the eve of President Medvedev’s visit to Nigeria in June 2009 but let us leave those aside. As of last year, there were also four units of Mi-171Sh Terminator assault helicopters.
* ALMOST WITHOUT EXCEPTION, the NA really do not use tanks for IS OPS and COIN really. No artillery or jets either. The rare exception was the attack on Panshekara in 2007 where all the Mil attack helicopters were deployed in the Niger Delta and a L39ZA was used for CAS.
* In very rare instances, tanks have been called up, perhaps as a symbolic gesture but rest assured that for COIN and IS Ops, you are almost invariably going to see only Otokar Cobra and Panhard VBL deployed. In the wet surfaces of the Niger Delta, Steyr 4K 7FA tracked APCs were sometimes called into action.
* When Boko Haram commenced their insurgency in October 2010, I recall that 95 troops from 231 Tank Battalion and 331 Field Artillery Regiment backed by three Scorpion light tanks were ordered to move to Maiduguri. That was a rare occurence
http://dailytrust.com.ng/index.php/images/stories/pdf/templates/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4614:-boko-haram-planted-bombspolice&catid=1:news&Itemid=2
* Beginning from 2003, armoured tanks and APCs have been consistently refurbished and upgraded at the Special Vehicle Plant. The first contract involved a contract for the upgrade of 36 Scorpion light tanks which was awarded to Messrs Marshpearl of Ireland and another contract for the upgrade of 14 Steyr tracked APCs which was awarded to EXPOMA of Austria.
http://news.biafranigeriaworld.com/archive/2003/apr/15/0024.html
* As of Q4 2009 when 235 trucks and utility vehicles the outgone COAS, General Dambazau announced the reintroduction into service after refurbishment and upgrades of 400 armoured vehicles of all types – tanks, APCs and AFVs.
* Right after the JSTF commenced operations in July 2011, the incumbent COAS General Ihejirika announced the reintroduction of another 80 units of armoured personnel carriers into service.
* You and I know why serviceability was low as of 1999 – sanctions. The complement of 50 T55 tanks(plus 75 EE9 Cascavel AFV)represented the only non-Western armoured vehicles in the fleet. It also affected the Navy and worse, the Air Force which had its problems complicated by a rogue FMG which sought to keep the nation’s Air Force grounded in line with its Machiavellian designs.
I agree deploying MBTs for COIN or IS in your own country is a bit of a no no, also what use are those platforms really beyond the psychological?
Sudan and Chad have much more undeveloped and ungoverned space than Nigeria. This is why I’m saying this is not yet the time that these kind of assaults will be launched, but once BH makes more areas beyond the reach of the NA then it will be possible.
For now I think it will not happen, and if and when it does it will start with attacks against small border towns.
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